Modeling Theory

Professor Morteza Anvari,                         morteza@anvari.net                                              http://www.anvari.net ----

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System Modeling Theory– CIS 212

Spring Quarter 2007

Course Syllabus

Prerequisite: CIS110

 

 

Meeting Days/Time

Saturdays 09:00 am – 12:45 pm

07 April to 16 June

Instructor

Prof. Mort Anvari

http://www.anvari.net

Instructor Phone

(202) 294-4230

Instructor E-mail

Morteza@Anvari.net

Instructor Office Hours/Location

Sat 12:30-13:00, SU @ Arlington, VA  Room 223

Academic Office Phone Number

(703) 769-2651

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INSTRUCTIONAL MATERIAL

 Mandatory Software: Microsoft Excel Spreadsheet and Crystal Ball

Class Web Site : http://anvari.net/Modeling_Theory.htm

 

1. Powell, S., & Barker, K., (2004). The art of modeling with spreadsheets: Management science, spreadsheet engineering, and modeling craft. New York: Wiley.

 

2. Crystal Ball

 

 

 

I.         COURSE DESCRIPTION

 

Covers the principles and theory of modeling and system simulation. Topics include when to use simulation, advantages and disadvantages of simulation, areas of application, models to use in simulation, analysis of simulation data, and verification and validation of models.

 

 

II.         EXPECTED LEARNING OUTCOMES

 

Upon the successful completion of this course, the student will be able to:

 

a.      Explain and use principles of Simulation and Modeling.

b.      Demonstrate and use Simulation software in developing simulated business models.

c.      Demonstrate knowledge of visual modeling for problem solving and formulation.

d.      Demonstrate knowledge of spreadsheet engineering.

e.      Demonstrate knowledge of forecasting, optimization, estimating relationships, and solver sensitivity.

f.        Demonstrate and develop simulation models that employ linear programming, non-linear programming, interpreting outcomes, and probability distributions.

 

III.       EXPECTED WEEKLY LEARNING OUTCOMES                                                    .   

 

The following weekly learning outcomes will be addressed:

 

Week 1

·        Understand and be able to explain the concepts related to the reasons modeling is used to solve problems.

·        Understand and be able to explain the concepts related to business process and how models can assist in solving problems.

Week 2 

·        Understand and be able to explain the concepts related to modeling with the problem solving process.

·        Understand and be able to explain the concepts related to data modeling and the real world and the model world.

·        Understand and be able to explain the concepts related to the six stages modeling process.

·        Understand and be able to explain the concepts related to lessons learned from expert modelers.

·        Understand and be able to model each of the constructs in techniques to enhance creativity in modeling.

Week 3

·        Understand and be able to explain the key terms related to simplifying problems.

·        Understand and be able to explain the concepts related to decomposing problems into modules.

·        Understand and be able to explain the concepts related to building and refining prototypes.

·        Understand and be able to explain the concepts related to graphing key relationships.

·        Understand and be able to identify parameters and perform sensitivity analysis.

·        Understand and be able to use normalization to decompose a relation with anomalies into well-structured relations.

·        Understand and be able to separate the creation of ideas from their evaluation.

·        Understand and be able to work backwards from the desired answer in formulation model components.

·        Understand and be able to identify and focus on model structures rather than data collection.

 

Week 4

·        Understand and be able to explain the concepts related influence charts.

·        Understand and be able to explain the concepts related to principles for building influence charts.

·        Understand and be able to explain the concepts related to outlines for pricing decisions and pro forma income statements.

·        Understand and be able to explain the concepts related the use of decision trees.

·        Understand and be able to explain the concepts related to modeling and the use of network diagrams.

 

Week 5     Midterm Examination

 

Week 6

·        Understand and be able to explain the concepts related to designing models using spreadsheet.

·        Understand and be able to explain the concepts related to designing models using workbooks.

·        Understand and be able to build and test models and simulations using spreadsheets.

 

Week 7

·        Understand and be able to explain the concepts related to performing simulation analyses using spreadsheets.

·        Understand and be able to employ base-case analysis, what-if, breakeven, optimization, and risk analyses in modeling.

 

Week 8

·        Understand and be able to explain the concepts related to data analysis in the service of modeling to include:

o       Base case analysis

o       Sensitivity analysis

o       Searching

o       Sorting

o       Filtering

o       Tabulating

·        Understand and be able to explain the concepts related to estimating parameters

o       Point estimates

o       Interval estimates

o       Interval proportional estimates

o       Sample size determination

o       Capacity planning

·        Understand and be able to explain the concepts related to exponential smoothing

 

Week 9

·        Understand and be able to explain the concepts and terminology related to optimization.

·        Understand and be able to build models for solver.

·        Understand and be able to perform model classification and solver algorithms.

·        Understand and be able to perform non-linear programming to include, revenue maximization, curve fitting, and sensitivity analysis.

·        Understand and be able to explain the concepts related to linear programming.

Week 10

·        Understand and be able to explain the concepts related to simulation with models.

·        Understand and be able to explain the concepts related to selecting uncertain parameters, probability distributions, precision in output, and optimization.

 

Week 11   Final Examination

 

 

IV.       COURSE OUTLINE

 

DATE

CHAPTER

INFORMATION

Week 1

1

Introduction

Week 2

2

Modeling in a Problem Solving Framework

Week 3

3

The Craft of Modeling

Week 4

4

Visual Modeling Tools for Problem Formulation

Week 5

 

Midterm Examination

Week 6

5

Spreadsheet Engineering

Week 7

6

Analysis Using Spreadsheets

Week 8

7

Data Analysis in the Service of Modeling

Week 9

8

Optimization

Week 10

9

Simulation     

Week 11

 

Final Examination

 

V.        COURSE REQUIREMENTS AND TEACHING STRATEGIES

 

This course will be conducted with classroom lectures and discussions based on the text and  supplemental materials, group exercises to practice negotiation principles, and individual assignments.  Group discussions and assignments will be conducted to enhance collaborative learning and exercise the techniques and considerations presented in the course.  Student comprehension of course content will be assessed through examinations, group exercise assignments, individual research on current topics, and     active participation in class discussion.

 

1.                  Mid-term examination

2.                  Final examination

3.                  Completion of all written and oral assignments

4.                  Active class participation

5.                  Regular class attendance

 

This section outlines major course events, including an overview of the conduct of the course and summarizes any basic mechanisms of course events (may include class sessions, group negotiation exercises, presentations, quizzes and examinations, etc). And describes the nature/context/intent of assignments, provides a basic classroom format, any reference or research requirements, due dates, turn in process, and any late work policy (if applicable).  

 

All students in the Information Systems program are required to satisfactorily complete the CIS499 Senior Seminar in Information Systems prior to graduate. The following is the course description of the CIS499 Senior Seminar:

 

“This course enables the student to complete an information systems project in their concentration. The project will be monitored by a supervising faculty member and must be defended by the student as the final examination. This course represents the last course or next to last course in the Information Systems curriculum. Based on the student’s concentration, the project requirements will require students to develop an operational program or database, a detailed network/internetwork design, or a network security plan demonstrating mastery and comprehensive knowledge of the learning outcomes in a student’s curriculum.”

 

It is recommended students retain all Information Systems concentration textbooks to support the development of their information systems project. Please understand the project is student driven. All students are responsible for demonstrating the competencies achieved while completing their respective concentrations.

 

 

VI.       EVALUATION METHODS


Final Grade


100%

Mid-Term Examination

30%

Final Examination

30%

Assignments Quizzes etc…

30%

Class Participation

10%

 

This section outlines key objectives or assignments upon which a student’s grade will be based; including how students will be assessed (including but not limited to exams, quizzes, group exercises, presentation, etc.).

 

Grading Scale

90-100

A

80-89

B

70-79

C

60-69

D

Below 60

F

 

VII. UNIVERSITY NOTICES

Honor Pledge

All work submitted for this course is subject to the University’s Academic Integrity Policy available in the Student Handbook and the University’s Honor Pledge, printed below:

 

I have read and understand Strayer University’s Academic Integrity Policy.  I promise to conduct myself with integrity in the submission of all academic work to the University and will not give or receive unauthorized assistance for the completion of assignments, research papers, examinations or other work.  I understand that violations of the Academic Integrity Policy will lead to disciplinary action against me, up to and including suspension or expulsion from the University. I understand that all students play a role in preserving the academic integrity of the University and have an obligation to report violations of the Academic Integrity Policy committed by other students.

 

Academic Integrity

Strayer University holds its students to high standards of academic integrity and will not tolerate acts of falsification, misrepresentation or deception.  Such acts of intellectual dishonesty include, but are not limited to, cheating or copying, fabricating data or citations, stealing examinations, the unauthorized use of instructor editions of textbooks, taking an exam for another student or having another student take an exam intended for oneself, tampering with the academic work of another student, submitting another’s work as one’s own, facilitating other students’ acts of academic dishonesty, using internet sources without citation and plagiarizing. 

 

Information Literacy

The University recognizes the development of skills to find, retrieve, analyze, and use information is critical to the academic success of each student and to the fostering of continued lifelong learning and intellectual growth.  Assignments supporting this development are included in many course syllabi as well as in the learning outcomes in all programs at all degree levels.  Strayer is committed to adding value to its courses and programs through a defined Information Literacy Plan.

 

Course Participation Guidelines for Students

The University encourages open discussion within its courses and often asks students to draw from personal experience in their responses to course assignments.  Though such information should be used only for educational purposes, the University cannot guarantee that such information will remain confidential.  Students are responsible for knowing the applicable polices of their employers and others with regard to the sharing of confidential information and using appropriate discretion.  Additional care should be used when posting to online discussion boards where written comments are preserved.  The University is not legally responsible for any inappropriate postings through its online discussion boards (i.e. those that violate University policy, defame another person, etc.).  In order to preserve an open discussion within the classroom environment, students may choose to not specifically identify their current or previous employers by name or withhold other similar identifying information. Questions or concerns regarding this policy should be directed to the course instructor or the applicable Campus Dean, Strayer University Online Dean of Students or the Dean of Student Affairs.

 

Attendance Policy

Students are expected to attend all regularly scheduled classes.  Should absences be necessary, students are responsible for the material covered during the absences.  Faculty cannot grant requests for excessive amounts of make-up material, and they may request written documentation detailing the reason for the absences.

 

Excessive absences make it almost impossible for a student to meet the academic objectives of a course; they frequently cause a student to receive a lower grade, even though, the absences were unavoidable.

 

Strayer University requires all faculty members to take attendance during each class period and to records it accurately on their permanent roster.  This data is available for verification of attendance by the appropriate governmental agencies and educational accrediting organizations.

 

A student who is absent from four consecutive class meetings, excluding holidays and emergency cancellation of classes, will be withdrawn automatically from that course.  A student will be withdrawn automatically from a mini-session course when he/she misses two consecutively scheduled class meetings.

 

Grade Dispute Policy

If you have questions with regard to the grading policies in this course, please contact the instructor for clarification.  Disputes with regard to final grades received in this course are handled in accordance with the University’s grade dispute policy as set forth in the Student Handbook.

 

Inclement Weather Policy

In the event of inclement weather, consult the Strayer University student website at http://studentserver.strayer.edu for information on University closings and delays.

                       

VIII. UNIVERSITY SERVICES

Learning Resources/Library

Learning resources to help students succeed academically are available through the Strayer University Library.  Each campus Learning Resources Center (LRC) offers print resources, books, and periodicals for research.  Circulating books located at any LRC may be requested for use through the LRC Manager.

 

Library resources are also available online, and can be accessed from any computer connected to the Resource Lab located on the e-College course web pages. The online suite of databases under EBSCOHost and other LRC resources can be accessed through the University’s website at http://online.strayer.edu/lrc/index.htm.   They provide thousands of full text periodicals, over 25,000 electronic books, radio and TV transcripts, the complete Encyclopedia Britannica, access to the Strayer University library catalog, online tutorials, and useful links to internet resources.  A tour of the LRC is highly recommended and can be scheduled through your LRC Manager.

 

Tutoring Services

Tutoring is offered for undergraduate level courses in subject areas such as English, writing skills development, mathematics, accounting and computer information systems.  All students have access to these free tutoring services-whether they are taking classes at a brick-and-mortar campus or via Strayer Online.  Tutoring services are provided by either a full-time or part-time faculty member with a strong background in the subject area in which he or she is tutoring.

 

Campus based tutoring schedules vary slightly, but typically tutoring services are available Monday through Friday in the late afternoon and Saturday mornings in order to accommodate the needs of our student body.  Students should check with their Academics Office for a tutoring schedule and information on how to schedule an appointment.

 

Notice to Students with Disabilities

Strayer University welcomes students with disabilities and provides reasonable accommodations and auxiliary aids and services in accordance with applicable law.  A disabled student is not required to disclose his/her disability to the University unless the student wishes the University to provide a reasonable accommodation.  If you desire accommodation for a disability in this course and have not already contacted the office of the Dean of Student Affairs with your request, please do so immediately.  Requests may be submitted to: 1133 Fifteenth Street, NW, Suite 300, Washington, D.C.  20005, Phone: (202) 419-0400, Fax: (202) 419-1423.

 

Security on Campus
Any person in immediate danger due to crime or emergency while on University property should contact local police immediately by dialing 911.
  When the emergency has subsided, the victim should also report the incident as soon as possible to the Campus Director of the location where the incident occurred.  The University’s Campus Security Report is available on the Strayer University student website at http://studentserver.strayer.edu.